The rush to the Arctic: Geopolitical linkages and challenges for Indo-Pacific regional stability
Maria Chris Lievonne, Fauzia Gustarina Cempaka Timur & Almuchalif Suryo
Abstract
This study aims to evaluate how great power competition in the Arctic, driven by new maritime routes emerging from melting sea ice due to climate change, significantly reduces shipping distances between Europe and Asia and impacts the dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region. This development has intensified strategic competition among major powers, especially China, the United States, and Russia. According to the realism theory, these countries pursue national interests by seeking to establish influence over the Arctic route. This study uses a qualitative methodology based on a comprehensive literature review, analyzing secondary data from academic publications, policy documents, and expert reports. The findings are synthesized and presented through descriptive narrative analysis to provide insights into the complex interactions between Arctic developments and Indo-Pacific regional dynamics. This study reveals that great power competition centered on the Arctic has substantial spillover impacts in the Indo-Pacific region, especially on regional environmental sustainability and geopolitical stability, particularly in the Malacca Strait region. A major limitation of this study lies in the evolving nature of great power competition in the Pacific Ocean, which poses challenges in accessing up-to-date information and analyzing fast-changing dynamics. The study concludes that the interconnectedness between the Arctic and the Indo-Pacific requires a nuanced understanding of the evolving geopolitical landscape. The findings have implications for regional security, economic cooperation, and environmental sustainability in both regions.
Keywords
Arctic, climate change, great power competition, Indo-Pacific
Author information & Contribution
Maria Chris Lievonne. Corresponding author. A magister student of the Defense Strategy Faculty majoring in Total War Strategy of the Republic Indonesia Defense Strategy (RIDU). Email: mlievonne@gmail.com
Fauzia Gustarina Cempaka Timur. Doctorate degree from International Relations and Affairs Universitas Padjadjaran. She is an assistant professor in the Defense Strategy Faculty of the Republic Indonesia Defense University (RIDU).
Almuchalif Suryo. Doctorate in defense science and lecturer in the Defense Strategy Faculty of the Republic Indonesia Defense University (RIDU).
“All authors equally contributed to the conception, design, preparation, data gathering and analysis, and writing of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.”
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Funding
This work was not supported by any funding.
Institutional Review Board Statement
Not Applicable.
Data and Materials Availability
AI Declaration
The author declares the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in writing this paper. In particular, the author used Scopus AI and Gemini 1.5 Flash to generate information for background research. The author takes full responsibility in ensuring proper review and editing of contents generated using AI.
Notes
Acknowledgement
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Cite this article:
Lievonne, M.C., Timur, F.G.C. & Suryo, A. (2025). The rush to the Arctic: Geopolitical linkages and challenges for Indo-Pacific regional stability. International Review of Social Sciences Research, 5(1), 128-152. https://doi.org/10.53378/irssr.353150
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