Nonlinear effects of FDI, external debt, and corruption in shaping economic development: Evidence from lower-middle-income economies
Aslam Mahmud
Abstract
Foreign direct investment (FDI), external debt, and corruption are high-priority issues in economic policymaking, especially in developing countries. This study examines the nonlinear relationships between these factors and economic development using panel data from 47 lower-middle-income countries (2012–2019). The study employs the panel corrected standard error (PCSE) regression technique, incorporating squared independent variables to test the nonlinearity of relationships with the dependent variable. Additionally, the Lind-Mehlum Utest is applied to identify the shape of the non-linear relationships and threshold level at which the direction of the relationship takes turn. The results of the study disclose that FDI has a U-shaped relationship with economic development. When FDI is below 8.11% of GDP, it negatively impacts economic development, but beyond this threshold, its effect turns positive. External debt follows an inverted U-shape relationship, positively influencing economic development up to 83.10% of per capita GNI, after which it impacts adversely. Similarly, corruption initially “greases the wheels” of economic development, facilitating growth until the corruption control percentile rank reaches 21.73. Beyond this point, corruption starts to “sand the wheels,” i.e. hinders economic development. This study is unique in its exploration of the nonlinear relationships between key economic variables and economic development in lower-middle-income countries, providing valuable insights for policymakers. The policymakers in the developing world need to be threshold-sensitive in these issues, focusing on attracting quality FDI, prudent debt management, and strengthening governance structures.
Keywords
external debt, foreign direct investment, corruption, economic development, non-linearity
Author information & Contribution
Master’s degree in Finance & Master of Business Administration degree in Finance and Banking. Assistant Professor, Department of Finance and Banking, Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Trishal, Mymensingh-2224, Bangladesh. Email: mahmud@jkkniu.edu.bd
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No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Funding
This work was not supported by any funding.
Institutional Review Board Statement
Not Applicable
AI Declaration
AI tools were not used in writing this paper.
Notes
Acknowledgement
References
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Cite this article:
Aslam Mahmud (2025). Nonlinear effects of FDI, external debt, and corruption in shaping economic development: Evidence from lower-middle-income economies. International Review of Social Sciences Research, 5(4), 205-231. https://doi.org/10.53378/irssr.353293
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